CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-01T11:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-01T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31787/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M1.2 flare peaking at 2024-07-01T11:02Z from AR 3730 (approx. S19W37). The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, the ejection of material following the flare can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193/304, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. || Possible arrival signature: Sudden jump in B-total from 6nT to 11nT, and is sustained between 10nT to 11nT for several hours. Corresponding rotation of the B-field components is observed. There is no significant increase in temperature until about 2024-07-05T08:20Z when the temperature suddenly increases from 50 K to about 90 K. The density decreases very suddenly at 03:23Z, which is indicative of a possible flux rope. Prior to this drop, the density had gradually reached a peak value of 19.29 p/cc, which is possibly attributable to the arrival of a higher density stream, which was indicated in ENLIL simulations to arrive early on July 5th. The source of this arrival may possibly be a cursory glancing blow from CME:2024-07-01T11:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-05T03:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-05T13:03Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIgram - 2024-07-03 Further analysis of the CME, seen at 11:24 UTC on June 01 in LASCO C2 data, shows that while the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth, a glancing blow is possible on July 05.Lead Time: 38.40 hour(s)
Difference: -9.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-07-03T12:47Z
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